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Inflation tide after peak - what next?

· Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank (Germany)

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· Joachim Nagel Wiki · Deutsche Bundesbank WikiInflation tide after peak - what next?

ContextSpeech at the Central Bank of Cyprus in Nicosia; the Bundesbank is Germany's central bank within the euro system and asks what comes after the inflation peak.

Why it mattersNagel warns that declaring victory over inflation too early could let it return.

Problems raised
  1. Headline inflation has peaked but underlying inflation remains strong.
  2. The full effect of tightening has not yet reached the economy.
  3. Declaring victory too early could let inflation return.
Solutions proposed
  1. Keep policy rates high for long enough.
  2. Monitor the transmission of tighter policy to the real economy.
  3. Remain data-dependent before considering cuts.
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