ContextPlenary address in Bangkok at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; the IMF advises and lends to its 191 members to keep the global economy stable.
Why it mattersGeorgieva says steady growth hides an energy shock and an AI boom, and presses high-debt countries to cut deficits.
- An energy shock and an AI boom pull growth in opposite directions.
- High public debt leaves countries little room to absorb shocks.
- AI brings cyber risks and may add to short-term inflation.
- Central banks should stay focused on price stability.
- High-debt countries should consolidate with credible medium-term plans.
- Countries should prepare for AI and strengthen cyber supervision.
Read the speech summary
1. A shared boat in rough water
Opening the Bangkok plenary, Georgieva thanked Thailand as host, the World Bank as partner and the membership the Fund serves, then pictured the world economy as one vessel. Waves of new technology and geopolitical mistrust are lashing it, and a heavy burden of public debt limits how well it can steer. She believes the long-run direction is still improving, but insists good outcomes are never automatic. So far the vessel has proved resilient; keeping it so will take sustained effort.
2. Steady growth, uneven fortunes
Global growth is projected at 3.1% this year, unchanged from a year ago, because an energy shock that drags output down is cancelled out by an AI boom that lifts it. Beneath the average, economies hit by war were marked down, while those in the AI value chain, chiefly the US, China, India and other Asian economies, were marked up. Public debt is too high nearly everywhere, worst among rich countries, rising in emerging markets, and costly in interest for low-income ones as aid shrinks. Energy disruption raises prices and slows output, while AI adds short-term inflation through debt-financed infrastructure. Bond markets are reacting: US, German and Japanese ten-year yields reached multi-decade highs, though trading stays orderly.
3. Advice to governments and central banks
Central banks should stay laser-focused on price stability; the IMF backs the recent tightening by the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, since acting early beats catching up later, even though higher rates raise public borrowing costs. Most high-debt countries need fiscal consolidation built on credible medium-term plans, sometimes with immediate measures, explained honestly to citizens, shielding the vulnerable and paired with reforms that raise potential growth. This matters most for large advanced economies, whose choices spill over to everyone. Every country should prepare for AI whatever its role, spread access to it, and guard against joblessness, an eroding tax base and above all cyber attacks.
4. What the Fund itself is doing
The IMF trains financial supervisors and runs about fifteen sector assessments a year, and has just finished reviews of those assessments, of its surveillance, of lending conditions and of debt analysis for low-income countries. It urges the biggest members to correct global imbalances: America should save more, China consume more and Europe invest more. Lending commitments stand at $240 billion, with about three times that unused. She asked members to back the plan making the concessional trust self-sustaining: 39 countries have given assurances covering nearly 48%, EU support would lift that to 74%, against a 90% goal. New capacity-development pledges topped $100 million, and she closed with a Thai king's reminder that benefits must be cultivated patiently.