Public finances and debt

1. The question and the scope

At the ECB's conference on money markets, Pablo Hernández de Cos asks how large the lasting footprint of a monetary authority's assets and liabilities should be once crises have passed. These portfolios swelled after the 2008 crisis and the pandemic, and have been shrinking in the euro area since 2022 and in many other economies. He sets aside emergency episodes and the lower-bound problem, concentrating on the reserves that commercial banks hold at the central bank. Two forces set their level: the operating framework, which fixes supply, and banks' own demand. Because financial systems, institutions and objectives differ, countries can reasonably draw different conclusions.

2. Operating frameworks

Frameworks differ by where supply meets the demand curve. In a corridor or scarce-reserves system, supply sits on the sloping part and banks forgo a positive return when they park reserves overnight, as in Brazil, India or Korea. Ample or abundant systems, such as the euro area's, push the market rate toward or below the deposit rate. Tiered designs pay a lower rate above a quota; Switzerland uses one to keep trading alive despite plentiful reserves. The ideal opportunity cost is debated: a textbook rule favours cheap, plentiful reserves, yet a large central bank footprint can distort allocation and crowd out private markets, while abundant liquidity can head off forced asset sales and scrambles for cash. Both effects coexist, so the net balance is hard to judge.

3. Monetary control and market functioning

Every framework can steer the policy stance, but with high reserves the operational target stays closer to the policy rate, since swings in currency demand or government deposits need no offsetting forecasts; scarce systems must intervene, though deviations are only a few basis points and do not seem to spread to other short rates. Plentiful reserves also let a central bank add liquidity without disturbing rate control. As reserves become abundant, trading incentives fade and interbank activity can wither; in Sweden around half of counterparties have taken part in no money market segment since 2020. Tiering sustains trading. Views differ on how much interbank turnover matters, since secured markets stay busy and supervision can supply discipline, and a recent ECB study finds unsecured lending carries higher regulatory costs than collateralised lending, though Japan's unsecured market recovered after tiering.

4. Financial stability

Abundant-reserve systems supply liquidity in advance, scarce ones provide it after stress appears, often at penalty rates against strict collateral. A large reserve cushion helps banks absorb shocks, lowers reliance on frozen interbank lending, forced sales of other liquid assets and emergency facilities, and trims banks' holdings of government bonds, weakening the sovereign-bank link. In stress, fragmented markets can leave some banks short at day's end. Yet the system may adapt to abundance in ways that raise fragility.

5. What drives reserve demand

Demand has risen over the past decade. Liquidity rules matter in different ways: intraday requirements or supervisory pressure behave like reserve requirements, whereas the standard coverage ratio can be met with other liquid assets, so it shows little link to reserve levels; reserves merely take a larger share as their opportunity cost falls. Frictions raise the insurance value of reserves: selling other liquid assets takes time, runs have become faster as the 2023 turmoil showed, borrowing from the central bank can carry stigma or lack operational readiness, and non-bank institutions may amplify swings in stress.

6. Endogenous effects and open questions

Demand may respond to the framework itself. When markets fragment, inactive banks act like autonomous factors whose payment flows move effective demand unexpectedly, and Swedish banks raised precautionary buffers as supply grew. High reserves may also encourage banks to take on more uninsured deposits and credit lines, leaving them more exposed if liquidity shrinks. Whether such effects can be undone as balance sheets fall is unresolved, though recent experience, including the euro area's, suggests a smooth reduction is achievable.

1. A decade of results

Opening the group's 18th plenary, Mathias Cormann notes that membership has grown from 82 to 148 since the first meeting in Kyoto, with Guatemala the newest. Members swapped gaps in tax rules for shared standards, added transparency and introduced a worldwide minimum tax on large multinationals. Profit per worker in investment hubs fell 27%, and the link between profit location and tax rates weakened by up to 40%. Roughly 65 jurisdictions apply the minimum tax, and a July study sees profit shifting dropping by a quarter to almost half while revenues rise 3 to 5% yearly.

2. Why work continues

Public debt exceeds pre-2008 levels in nearly every G20 economy and growth is slowing to 2.9%, so efficient, trusted tax systems matter more. Three priorities follow: make sure all members, especially developing ones, benefit through simpler reviews, wider access to country reports and training for about 150 000 officials; keep rules suited to change, with new work on mobile workers and on tax, inequality and growth, plus AI in administration and ageing societies.

3. Digital economy talks

The third priority is a constructive route on the tax questions raised by digitalisation. Members will restart the debate from evidence on how the sector evolved. Agreement will be hard, but the aim is to avoid fragmentation, protect tax bases and give firms and governments predictability, using the diversity of members as a strength.

1. Policy decisions and inflation

Governor Michele Bullock tells a Senate committee that the board has raised the cash rate target by a further quarter point since June, bringing this year's total tightening to a full percentage point. Inflation, which had fallen from its 7.9% peak back into the 2 to 3% target band during 2024 and 2025, rose again in the second half of 2025 and now runs around 3.5 to 4%. Her warning is that prolonged deviation from target can embed itself in expectations, prices and wages. August forecasts saw a return to the target midpoint only in late 2027, and several upside risks have since materialised.

2. Global and domestic pressures

The Middle East conflict has re-escalated and energy prices are far above the August assumptions, feeding directly into prices and indirectly through transport costs. Short-term expectations are high, and the AI boom and extreme weather push up farm and technology prices. Still, much of the problem is homegrown: underlying measures excluding volatile items show demand-driven pressure, the labour market looks tighter than thought, and weak productivity means stronger growth would quickly add price pressure. A further period of subdued demand growth is therefore needed. Policy works with a lag, so recent increases have not fully acted.

3. Activity, housing and households

Effects of the conflict on activity have been modest, household spending is cooling gradually, and business investment is strong because of data centres and renewable projects. Housing has softened, with prices lower in most capitals, though still about half above early 2020, and risks from household borrowing remain contained because few borrowers face severe difficulty. She stresses the bank does not target house prices. She acknowledges the pain of higher repayments but argues persistent inflation hurts everyone, especially people with low incomes and few savings.

4. Payments, innovation and cash

A reform package ended card surcharging from 1 October and cuts interchange caps, and large providers have lowered fees for small businesses. A wider review of payment regulation covers mobile wallets, account-to-account transfers and agent-driven commerce, with priorities due by end-2026. Following Project Acacia, the bank is consulting on letting its settlement services support tokenised markets. On cash, new legislation gives it crisis-readiness and resolution powers, and the armoured-cash firm Linfox Armaguard has been designated, which only signals the ability to act if needed.

1. Why resilience matters now

Opening the Green Swan Conference in Manila, Banca d'Italia Governor Fabio Panetta said climate change has stopped being a distant threat: it already shapes economic and financial conditions. Cutting emissions remains essential but cannot remove physical risk, and some damage is now unavoidable, so resilience must be built through three tasks: understanding risks, sharing them and reducing exposure. The costs are visible in weaker productivity, lost capital and strained budgets, with extreme weather causing over two hundred billion dollars of direct damage in 2025, more than double the early-2000s level, and shocks that can also move inflation, hitting emerging economies hardest. Governments lead climate policy; central banks and supervisors should simply keep meeting their existing mandates in a changing environment.

2. Understanding the risk

Data on physical climate risk remain patchy in availability, quality and comparability, while hazards are local, arrive in bursts and become harder to predict from history as extremes change. That makes them hard to measure and price, and better information also steers capital towards the places needing adaptation most. Financial institutions should fold climate into credit, market, operational and insurance risk instead of treating it as a separate compliance task. Artificial intelligence can sharpen modelling, forecasting and early warning, but it cannot replace reliable data, sound models and human judgement.

3. Sharing and absorbing the risk

Much of the loss from natural disasters is uninsured, so households cannot rebuild, firms stop producing or default, governments pay after the event and the shock reaches banks. Properly priced insurance does more than compensate: it rewards prevention. Yet cover is hard to expand, because people underestimate risk, premiums can be unaffordable and some markets are thin. The answer is a layered system: private insurers take smaller, frequent losses, reinsurers larger diversified ones, and public backstops handle extreme events while keeping prevention incentives, an approach developed under Italy's 2024 Group of Seven presidency and reaffirmed this year. Catastrophe bonds can widen the capital base, and Italy has introduced compulsory cover against floods, earthquakes and landslides for non-farm firms, with a public backstop. Premiums must stay affordable and reflect risk.

4. Reducing exposure through adaptation

Prevention matters most where exposure is high and fiscal room is thin, because rising debt limits adaptation spending and weak adaptation worsens public finances, a climate-debt spiral. Adapting is cheaper than rebuilding repeatedly, yet it is badly underfunded in emerging economies, held back by few investable projects, uncertain regulation and weak institutions. Governments should build resilient infrastructure, set planning standards and publish hazard information, while development banks use guarantees and blended finance to draw in private money. Technology helps with forecasting and monitoring, but growing data centres raise demand for energy, water and raw materials.

5. Conclusion

Understanding, sharing and reducing risk reinforce one another, and no institution can deliver them alone: governments, insurers, businesses, development banks and central banks each have a part, and international cooperation is essential because shocks cross borders. The aim is for economies to absorb climate shocks without them turning into wider crises; preparing for the future starts with building resilience now.

1. A shared boat in rough water

Opening the Bangkok plenary, Georgieva thanked Thailand as host, the World Bank as partner and the membership the Fund serves, then pictured the world economy as one vessel. Waves of new technology and geopolitical mistrust are lashing it, and a heavy burden of public debt limits how well it can steer. She believes the long-run direction is still improving, but insists good outcomes are never automatic. So far the vessel has proved resilient; keeping it so will take sustained effort.

2. Steady growth, uneven fortunes

Global growth is projected at 3.1% this year, unchanged from a year ago, because an energy shock that drags output down is cancelled out by an AI boom that lifts it. Beneath the average, economies hit by war were marked down, while those in the AI value chain, chiefly the US, China, India and other Asian economies, were marked up. Public debt is too high nearly everywhere, worst among rich countries, rising in emerging markets, and costly in interest for low-income ones as aid shrinks. Energy disruption raises prices and slows output, while AI adds short-term inflation through debt-financed infrastructure. Bond markets are reacting: US, German and Japanese ten-year yields reached multi-decade highs, though trading stays orderly.

3. Advice to governments and central banks

Central banks should stay laser-focused on price stability; the IMF backs the recent tightening by the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, since acting early beats catching up later, even though higher rates raise public borrowing costs. Most high-debt countries need fiscal consolidation built on credible medium-term plans, sometimes with immediate measures, explained honestly to citizens, shielding the vulnerable and paired with reforms that raise potential growth. This matters most for large advanced economies, whose choices spill over to everyone. Every country should prepare for AI whatever its role, spread access to it, and guard against joblessness, an eroding tax base and above all cyber attacks.

4. What the Fund itself is doing

The IMF trains financial supervisors and runs about fifteen sector assessments a year, and has just finished reviews of those assessments, of its surveillance, of lending conditions and of debt analysis for low-income countries. It urges the biggest members to correct global imbalances: America should save more, China consume more and Europe invest more. Lending commitments stand at $240 billion, with about three times that unused. She asked members to back the plan making the concessional trust self-sustaining: 39 countries have given assurances covering nearly 48%, EU support would lift that to 74%, against a 90% goal. New capacity-development pledges topped $100 million, and she closed with a Thai king's reminder that benefits must be cultivated patiently.

1. The backdrop

Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis summarised the ministers' meeting of 8 October 2026 against a tense background: geopolitical strains lifting energy costs and inflation, and higher government borrowing costs as investors scrutinise the budgets of large European economies. He argues the euro area's fundamentals and its revised fiscal rules are solid, and that confidence depends on prudent budgets, strong institutions and coordinated action.

2. Energy

Fuel prices such as diesel and jet fuel rose again from late August because of the Middle East and Russia's war. Ministers reviewed national relief measures and agreed they must stay temporary, targeted and tailored so as not to strain public finances. He adds that Europe needs long-term investment in clean power, electrification, grids and interconnections, since energy security, competitiveness and the climate transition go together.

3. Better use of public money

Revisiting a 2016 discussion, he notes how conditions have worsened: the EU deficit is expected at 3.5% of GDP in 2026 against 1.7% then, ten-year yields average 4% instead of 1.1%, and defence spending is rising from 1.3% to 2.4% of GDP. With markets demanding more compensation for fiscal risk, he rules out both extra borrowing and blanket cuts, calling instead for reviewing spending priorities, more efficient tax systems and stronger fiscal governance as a complement to consolidation.

4. Capital markets, global issues and the ECB

Ministers reviewed progress on pensions, savings and investment accounts: retail participation and supplementary pensions are rising, but Europe must mobilise far more of its savings for investment. Ahead of the IMF and World Bank meetings, he notes the euro's earlier rise has largely reversed and calls on big surplus and deficit economies to share the rebalancing. Finally, the Eurogroup opened the search for a successor to Isabel Schnabel, who leaves the ECB board on 3 January 2027, with applications due by 28 October.

1. Resilient so far

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the financial system has held up despite the Middle East conflict, high bond yields and new AI-related exposures, crediting post-2008 reforms often criticised as burdensome: banks are well capitalised and markets have kept functioning. Yet slower growth, one supply shock after another and a different make-up of markets leave no room for complacency.

2. A policy dilemma

Slower productivity and a rapid series of shocks (Covid, Ukraine, the Middle East) may be the new normal in a more geopolitical world. Supply shocks raise inflation while cutting output; central banks can look through them only if expectations stay anchored, which is harder after years of high inflation. Rate rises can then coincide with falling incomes and asset prices, and repeated shocks push public debt up, so governments find it harder to cushion downturns.

3. Fragile bond markets and the response

Government bonds are now held more by leveraged, price-sensitive investors than by long-term holders, so forced selling can spread across countries and assets. He proposes faster sustainable growth, including safely deployed AI, whose financing also carries risk; credible frameworks, with a firm inflation commitment, clear explanation of policy under different scenarios and credible fiscal rules; and sturdier core markets through more central clearing, minimum haircuts and better risk management.

1. The question

In the SUERF annual lecture in Vienna, BIS General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos asked how changes in public finances, market structure and technology will alter what central banks can and should do when the next financial crisis hits.

2. What recent crises taught

From the global financial crisis, the euro debt crisis and the pandemic, he draws three lessons. Central banks were decisive: standing and emergency liquidity, emergency loans and bond buying stopped fire sales and restored key funding markets. Credibility mattered as much as money: in several cases simply announcing purchases, or offering lending that banks barely used, was enough to calm markets. But each success exposed limits. Bond-buying programmes were hard to size and explain when nobody knew how long a shock would last, and some meant to fix temporary dysfunction turned into lasting stimulus, making exit harder. And lending directly to firms, markets or non-banks during the pandemic, beyond the usual banking circle, exposed central banks to credit risk and blurred the line with government support.

3. Three forces that complicate the next crisis

High public debt: with debt near post-war peaks and large deficits, sovereign bond markets react more to fiscal doubts, and it becomes harder to tell whether rising yields reflect fiscal concerns or a market malfunction; even a well-designed intervention may then look like help for governments. Non-banks: funds and other non-bank institutions now own the largest share of rich countries' government bonds, and highly leveraged traders like hedge funds have become central go-betweens in those markets. Their short-term funding and leverage can turn fiscal news into sudden sales, as in the dash for cash of March 2020 and the British pension-fund episode of 2022, creating what the BIS calls a fiscal-financial stability nexus. Since they usually cannot borrow from the central bank, support has to take the form of asset purchases, and widening access without comparable regulation would invite moral hazard. Digital innovation: online banking and social media made the 2023 deposit runs unusually fast and let rumours spread before official messages; stablecoins could transmit stress to money markets if they had to dump reserve assets; and widespread use of similar AI models may make market reactions more synchronised.

4. Responses he proposes

He calls for a layered answer. Governments should put debt on a credible path and build buffers in good times, which reduces both the need for central bank action and the suspicion that it serves fiscal ends. Regulators should keep refining bank rules, for example by assuming faster deposit outflows and making sure banks are operationally ready to use central bank facilities, and should apply similar rules to institutions posing similar risks, whatever their legal form; options include more central clearing of government bond and repo trades, with its own risks, and well-targeted minimum haircuts to curb leverage. Central banks should design backstops that are cheap enough in stress to avoid stigma but unattractive in normal times, keep market-repair purchases clearly separate from monetary stimulus, as the Bank of England did with its time-limited 2022 operation, and set exit conditions in advance for quantitative easing. Finally, he stresses international cooperation on standards and data for non-banks, central bank swap lines for dollar funding stress, and coordinated communication, with the BIS acting as a hub.

1. A disaster as a metaphor

Addressing a forum on Africa and geopolitics, South Africa's central bank governor opened with the glacier-driven flood that killed thousands in Nepal in August 2026. Dams in the valley had been designed for floods twenty times smaller than the one that came. He used the event as an image of a world where dangers build up quietly until a cascade of crises overwhelms ordinary precautions, and he listed five sources of danger.

2. Climate and geopolitics

August 2026 tied the record for the hottest month, and current policies point to warming of about 2.6°C by 2100, well beyond the 1.5°C goal. For central banks this means more supply shocks, bursts of food inflation and insurance gaps that threaten financial stability. Geopolitics adds to the strain: disputes over Greenland and a tariff conflict pitting Canada against the United States, a fifth year of war in Ukraine with attacks on Black Sea grain routes and refineries, and an intensifying Middle East conflict that keeps oil near $100 and Saudi output at a thirty-year low. Supply disturbances, rather than demand, now drive the global cycle.

3. Imbalances, AI and debt

Large trade imbalances have returned, with China's surplus under criticism, and history suggests they end abruptly and painfully, yet the trust needed for an IMF-led adjustment is missing. Artificial intelligence has advanced fast, with recent incidents of AI agents escaping controls and breaking into systems; he sees cyberattacks as a plausible trigger for the next financial crisis, alongside asset bubbles. Imagine, he said, a swarm of tireless automated agents breaking into the national payment system or a large financial firm. Public and private debt keep rising, long-term yields in rich countries are at multi-decade highs, the safety premium on US debt has faded, reserve managers are diversifying into gold and other currencies, and leveraged investors such as hedge funds increasingly set bond prices.

4. Fiscal dominance and central bank courage

Many economists fear fiscal dominance, where a central bank tolerates inflation to ease the government's debt burden. He accepted the concern but rejected fatalism: central banking was never easy for South Africa, through the 2001 rand crisis, 2008, the 2013 taper tantrum, attacks on its independence and COVID-19. South African debt has roughly tripled since 2008 and interest absorbs about 5.3% of GDP, more than in the United States, Britain or France, yet he argued this calls for independence and courage, not surrender. Since inflation is poorly understood by the public and can be created quietly, central banks must make it the hardest option so that better fiscal choices win.

5. South Africa's position

Inflation has been above the 3% target for about six months because of the war-driven energy shock, compared with more than five years of misses in the United States. The bank tightened policy and expects to return to target around the end of 2027. Public debt appears to have peaked in 2025/26, which has kept long-term yields near 9% and the rand stable while bond yields jumped elsewhere. Growth remains the weak point: about 0.6% a year over the past decade, with potential output now estimated around double that. The end of power cuts has been offset by the war and by electricity prices that doubled since 2020.

6. Conclusion

The world is more dangerous and less governed than before, though growth and trade continue. South Africa, distant from conflict zones, young and rich in resources, has a better macroeconomic position than before, but it must recognise its new situation and act on its strengths, as little outside help is likely.

1. Resilient growth, rising pressure

After the Eurogroup meeting in Dublin, President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said the euro area did better than expected in the second quarter and should keep expanding through the end of 2026. He then listed multiplying challenges: Middle East developments are pushing oil and gas prices up again, and tighter global financial conditions have lifted government bond yields everywhere, adding strain to national budgets. Spreads inside the euro area remain modest compared with past crises, which he attributes to past tough choices, sturdier institutions and more prudent budgets.

2. Energy independence and fiscal discipline

His answer is to reduce dependence on events abroad by speeding up energy independence, and to stay on the agreed fiscal path because credibility has become an economic asset. If higher energy prices call for new support, it should be narrow in scope, short in duration and compatible with the budget rules. Investment in defence, digitalisation and energy should continue, and public spending should be made more effective, a topic the ministers will take up again next month.

3. Productivity and Europe's savings

Ministers also heard OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann on productivity, two years after the Draghi report. Pierrakakis said progress is real but the world is moving faster. The priorities he named: skills and education suited to an AI-driven economy, steering capital, labour and technology towards their most productive uses, faster spread of innovation, higher productivity in services, and channelling European savings into growing firms through a deeper Single Market. Europe, he concluded, knows many of the solutions and must now deliver them.

1. A hard backdrop

Meeting Germany's finance minister Lars Klingbeil ahead of the Dublin Eurogroup, President Kyriakos Pierrakakis described an exceptionally difficult setting: the war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and high energy costs and price pressure weighing on firms and households. Euro-area growth has nevertheless held up better than feared.

2. Beyond budget discipline

He says sound public finances matter but will not alone bring growth or economic sovereignty. Structural obstacles must be tackled: a deeper Single Market, a faster savings and investments union, and an energy market less split by national borders. Fiscal room will shrink as defence, ageing and climate costs rise, so the Eurogroup will review revenue, spending and governance in the coming months, push the market integration and supervision package, and open a strategic debate on AI and technological sovereignty, alongside energy security, critical minerals and climate adaptation.

3. A lesson from Greece

Drawing on his experience as Greece's finance minister, he argued that painful reforms pay off politically, economically and socially, pointing to his country's fast-falling debt, positive growth and primary surpluses. The goal, he said, is a European economy less exposed to outside shocks.

1. A harder job for central banks

Addressing governors at the BIS, Georgieva noted two decades of shifting regimes, from calm to crisis to near-zero rates, then pandemic and war, plus technology advancing in jumps. Each shock complicates price stability, financial stability and payments. She concentrated on price stability and three questions about it.

2. Demand management under an energy shock

She is less optimistic than the consensus about the size and length of the supply shock from disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The world economy has held up, with growth near three percent, thanks to rerouted oil, higher exports from the United States and Norway, curtailed Chinese imports, refining capacity and coordinated stock releases. Yet prices stay high, traffic is about a tenth of its prewar level, reserves will run low and AI adds energy demand. How restrictive policy should be depends on the risk of second-round effects; the IMF sees a smaller price-level shift than Europe's 2022 gas shock and probably more slack. Emerging market frameworks have matured.

3. What AI means for monetary policy

AI is a positive demand shock today, through infrastructure spending and wealth effects, and a positive supply shock later. Whether it proves inflationary or deflationary depends on size and timing: higher expected income could lift demand and the neutral rate before supply expands, while a hollowed-out job market and winner-takes-all dynamics could mute demand. A return to ultra-low inflation and rates is ruled out for now. Fiscal authorities should begin to think about the future of personal income taxation.

4. High debt and fiscal dominance

Debt jumps whenever a shock strikes and barely falls afterwards, leaving the heaviest global burden since the Second World War and a path above one hundred percent of output. Inflation is stubborn and rate-cutting cycles look finished. Ten-year yields in the United States, France and Japan are at multi-decade highs and lift curves worldwide, even as central bank holdings keep large amounts of debt off the market. Reliance on short-term bills raises financing needs, and growth alone can no longer fix the arithmetic. Fears of fiscal dominance push yields and expectations up, so central banks must respond forcefully to future shocks to protect credibility, while the IMF keeps flagging fiscal risk in its consultations.

5. Five features of success

Vigilance when shocks interact, agility, communication that guards policy options, credibility through independence and a clear nominal anchor, even with a hawkish bias, and humility to correct course. She added that decisive liquidity provision may be needed when yield spikes signal malfunction rather than discipline.

1. Why payments matter, and what is new

Speaking at Jackson Hole, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva argued that faster and cheaper cross-border payments are worth pursuing because high costs and curbs on correspondent banking push activity into informal channels and hold back trade in digital services, including AI. Domestic payment innovation has already helped poorer households, but cross-border progress is uneven. Many projects now link national systems, from the ECB's instant-payment platform to schemes in Southeast Asia and southern Africa and a project at the BIS. Whether private ledger technology can transform this at global scale is unknown, yet tokenization and stablecoins may make global finance more fluid, spreading risks faster and raising the price of policy mistakes.

2. Regulation must be coordinated

Her first argument is that these instruments need an internationally coordinated response: strict and ideally harmonized rules on reserve pools so coins can always be redeemed at par, the same rules for similar instruments to limit arbitrage, protection against excessive loss of bank deposits since banks fund households and small firms, and modernization where activity has drifted to lightly regulated nonbanks. Cooperation on data, legal frameworks and interoperability is essential.

3. Emerging markets need stronger buffers

Stablecoins can facilitate tax evasion, currency substitution and leakage around capital controls, which still shield about a quarter of IMF members, some of which also rely on financial repression. Central banks should supervise domestic stablecoin intermediaries and build larger foreign exchange reserves, while governments broaden tax bases and cut primary deficits, even though appetite for consolidation is weak after generous support.

4. Issuer countries and fiscal discipline

Countries whose assets back stablecoins, above all the United States, can tap a pool of roughly fifteen trillion dollars held abroad and may lower funding costs, perhaps at others' expense, but such savings are marginal and no substitute for sound policy. Benchmark yields in the United States, France and Japan are at multi-decade highs and lift curves worldwide. Central banks must protect price stability and not rescue public finances through lower rates or asset purchases; the remaining answer is fiscal choice between lower spending and higher taxes, without further delay.

5. Closing note

Technology tends to knit a fragmented world back together, and she is confident cross-border payments will eventually change, provided the right conditions are set to capture the benefits and manage the risks.

1. From saving the world to resilience

Speaking at the University of South Africa, Governor Lesetja Kganyago began with a 1999 Time cover showing three Americans as a committee to save the world, when emerging markets lurched from the Tequila crisis to Asia and Russia (output down 10-13% in the worst-hit Asian economies, currencies losing half their value or more, South Africa's prime rate peaking at 25.5% and its reserves exhausted defending the rand). That view of emerging markets as fragile and dependent on Washington has passed its expiry date: the 2007-09 crisis began in the US, while a core group, among them Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, India, Indonesia and his own country, has gone decades without defaults, IMF bailouts or currency collapses, thanks to home-grown reform.

2. How resilience was built

The 1990s fault line was weak monetary credibility, with dollar pegs, foreign-currency borrowing and lax supervision. The fixes were independent, inflation-targeting central banks with floating exchange rates and a clear purpose; large foreign-exchange reserves; and better financial supervision to limit private over-borrowing, a story history repeats from railways to Latin America. Capital-flow measures, despite the debate, mattered little. Fiscal policy remains the unsolved problem: unlike monetary policy it lacks a reliable rule, and today rich countries' debts look the least sustainable. Resilience is also not growth: emerging economies rose from about 40% to over 60% of world output, but mostly through Asia.

3. South Africa: strength and a silent crisis

South Africa fits the pattern: an independent central bank since 1996, a floating rand after 1998, inflation targeting since 2000, an inflation gap with the US that shrank from 10 points to under 1, reserves of about 74 billion dollars and no systemic financial event. Its weak spot is debt, which climbed from below 30% to close to 80% of output, cost it investment-grade ratings and now absorbs a fifth of tax revenue; but debt is stabilising, helped by a primary surplus run out of prudence, and long-run borrowing costs have fallen by about 300 basis points. Growth is the silent crisis, with living standards below the early 2010s. He rejects blaming macro policy and points instead to state capture, failing municipalities and state firms, a private sector in survival mode, and slow reform despite Operation Vulindlela.

4. The choice

He asks whether the country truly wants growth, citing Pritchett's call to simply go for it and Dercon's gambling on development: South Africans are risk-shy, protect incumbents and love detailed rules, and should bet on growth rather than sport. The country, he concludes, is resilient but not yet flourishing.

1. The Gelam tree and renewal

Speaking at the Sasana Symposium on the theme of reforms for resilience, Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour likened structural reform to the Gelam tree, which thrives in harsh conditions by shedding bark and renewing itself. Monetary policy is an important defence and the current stance fits the growth and inflation outlook, but as a demand tool it cannot fix underlying weaknesses; reforms invest in the economy's future, raising productivity, competitiveness and staying power. Malaysia reformed after the Asian crisis, again when investment slowed in the mid-2010s, and after the pandemic; the central bank's part is preserving macroeconomic stability so reforms can take hold, through steady prices, a healthy banking system and well-functioning markets, and it will keep doing so. The medium-term outlook stays favourable, with firm growth and manageable inflation.

2. Productive capacity and public finances

The latest reform phase has two pillars. On investment, the aim is not simply more but the right kind, bringing technology, better jobs and greater value; Malaysia approved 815 billion ringgit over two years, almost half of GDP, mostly in advanced manufacturing, semiconductors and digital technology. On fiscal capacity, phased-in targeted diesel subsidies, subsidy reforms, tax adjustments and a fiscal responsibility law cut the deficit from 6.2% of GDP in 2020 to 3.7% in 2025. Growth was 5.2% last year, the ringgit led regional currencies, and 4-5% growth, toward the upper end, is expected this year despite the energy shock. None of this happened by chance, he stressed: difficult choices were made early and in sequence. A 1.5 billion dollar global sukuk drew nearly five times the amount offered, at record-low spreads.

3. Where to go: jobs, skills and wages

He set out anchors for the next stage. First, make growth felt at home through better jobs: high-skilled employment rose from 27.5% to 30.1% of the total between 2019 and 2025, and the investment pipeline could create about 245 000 jobs, many of them higher skilled, yet over two thirds of workers hold low or mid-skilled roles. That calls for continuous upskilling, digital fluency, vocational training and STEM and AI education under the 13th Malaysia Plan, plus wages that reward productivity, minimum wage increases as a floor, and a more coherent social protection system that tackles the roots of vulnerability.

4. Value creation and a better financial sector

Second, move from extracting value to creating and retaining it: investment should leave behind stronger local firms, skills and technology diffusion, through research, design, engineering and programmes such as SemiconStart, and growth must stay sustainable given the country's rich biodiversity. Third, everyone has a role: the upcoming Financial Sector Blueprint 2027-2030 aims for finance that builds resilience to climate shocks, supports prosperity by channelling capital to productive firms, with Islamic finance as a force for change, and is future-proofed through proportionate regulation that does not curb innovation.

5. Co-creation and closing

The central bank is moving towards co-creation with banks, businesses and technology players, through platforms such as the climate change joint committee, the regulatory sandbox and iTEKAD, which will launch an employment initiative. Countries should stay ahead of the curve instead of solving yesterday's problems. Closing on Gelam bark that let Malay ships flex with the waves, he said resilience means adapting without losing one's bearings, and the task now is to turn stronger foundations into stronger incomes, investment into opportunity and resilience into progress that many people share.

1. A broader Eurogroup

After the 9 July meeting, Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said budgets, debt and fiscal rules remain core, but the economy is changing so fast that competitiveness, technology, AI, energy security and geopolitics form one reality, so the Eurogroup must evolve. The new twelve-month work programme has four priorities: fiscal coordination, the savings and investments union, Europe's competitiveness together with its economic security, and a stronger global, digital and strategic role for the euro, and it will widen to cover military funding, energy supply security and tech autonomy.

2. AI and digital finance

Ministers heard from Mistral's chief executive Arthur Mensch. AI can lift productivity and strengthen finance through better risk management and cyber defence, but the same capabilities create new systemic risks, which the ESRB and ECB supervisors highlighted for frontier models; Europe must mobilise capital so its AI champions can scale at home. A common statement on digital finance calls for speed, legal clarity and public-private cooperation, and he welcomed the European Parliament's vote on the digital euro.

3. Fiscal stance and the euro

On the fiscal stance, uncertainty is high given the Middle East, and defence, energy and public investment needs must be met without losing the credibility of the agreed fiscal framework. The ECB showed that the euro's international role is strengthening; stability remains the foundation, but competitiveness decides where Europe stands.

1. The budget and the euro

At the annual EU budget conference, Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis answered the question of how the European budget supports the euro by shifting from how to spend money to how to generate it. A currency is only as strong as the economy standing behind it, and investors put money into issuers' output potential, robustness and trustworthiness. In a world where technology is a strategic asset, energy a security issue and dependencies a geopolitical weakness, resilience has become a source of competitiveness, which is the base of monetary strength. So the multiannual financial framework should be about strengthening long-term capacity to create prosperity, and the debate should move from a zero-sum game over scarce funds to a positive-sum one.

2. The spectrum example

Europe's best achievements, he argued, came from creating new economic value through scale and ending fragmentation, as with the coal and steel community, the single market and now the savings and investments union. As a concrete case he cited radio spectrum, the asset underpinning AI, manufacturing, mobility, satellites and defence, which is still sold through 27 separate auction systems with 27 regulators, even though Europe has telecom champions that compete globally. Greece's 2020 auction aimed at quick roll-out and put a quarter of proceeds into a fund for 5G applications. If 6G and 5G renewal auctions were synchronised, the proceeds could become an own resource for the EU budget and endow an EIB fund for next-generation applications. He concluded that faith in the euro depends on faith in the European economy.

1. The Annual Economic Report

Presenting the BIS flagship report at the yearly shareholders' meeting of the BIS in Basel, its General Manager framed the past year as a mix of progress, from rapid advances in artificial intelligence, and peril, from renewed inflation, financial fragilities linked partly to AI enthusiasm and heavy public debt. A second chapter studies how high debt and changing bond markets complicate central banking, and a third, presented by a colleague, argues that new digital forms of money only work if built on proven institutional foundations. The common message is that each policy area gains room to act when the others are disciplined.

2. Why the world absorbed the tariffs

A year earlier, many expected US tariffs to hit growth and trade hard. Three things limited the damage. Effective US tariff rates ended close to 10% on average rather than the more than 25% announced, thanks to deals and exemptions, which explains about a third of the later upgrades to 2025 growth. Firms adapted by shipping early, rerouting goods and absorbing part of the cost in their margins. And enthusiasm for AI triggered a wave of spending on data centres and related equipment, lifting US investment and Asian exports and keeping financial conditions easy despite uncertainty. By the end of 2025, world growth was almost back to its pre-tariff forecast.

3. A historic oil shock

The year began strongly until the Middle East conflict. Shutting the Hormuz strait removed a larger share of world oil supply than the crises of the 1970s, and growth forecasts were cut across countries. Markets stayed calm, betting on a quick settlement, and signs of a lasting reopening brought relief. He warned against complacency: production halted across the region will take time to restart, damaged facilities and shipping routes need repair, and rebuilding depleted oil stocks could keep demand and prices high.

4. Four pressure points

The report identifies four sources of strain. First, inflation: global inflation has risen by about one point since the conflict began, and higher prices for inputs such as plastics and fertilisers can keep pushing consumer prices up after oil calms down, while recent memories of high inflation could unsettle expectations faster than before; more slack in labour markets and higher starting interest rates than in 2021 help. Second, AI: task-level studies show big efficiency gains but economy-wide effects are still small, and sectors more exposed to AI in the United States already show weaker job growth. If AI lifts productivity durably, the neutral interest rate rises; if automation squeezes wages and spending, a shortage of demand could reverse that, with matching consequences for inflation if policy misjudges it. Investment may also overshoot as firms race for market share, and past technology booms, from canals and railways to the dotcom era, often ended abruptly. Third, financial vulnerabilities: risk premiums are compressed, households hold more shares than in the past, AI firms and their suppliers increasingly borrow, some financing is circular and opaque, and private credit is growing, so a disappointment or a rate rise could tighten conditions sharply. Fourth, public finances: debt in many economies is near its highest since 1945, conflicts add spending demands, and interest costs and refinancing needs are rising.

5. Debt and new bond market players

Debt grew through repeated crises, but also because governments loosen policy strongly in bad times and tighten too little in good times, and since 2008 they have reacted even less to rising debt. Without consolidation, ageing, infrastructure and defence costs will push debt higher still, and it would be unwise to test the limits. Bond markets have also changed: pension funds and insurers remain steady buyers, but leveraged hedge funds financed by short-term repo, often with little or no margin, now play a much larger role in US and European government bonds. Liquidity that looks abundant can disappear under stress. The old link between weak sovereigns and weak banks has faded as banks are stronger, but turmoil can now spread more quickly via repo funding, from one country to another and from hedge funds to the banks tied to them. BIS estimates suggest that the chance of severe Treasury market stress is roughly ten times higher when debt is in its top tenth than in its bottom tenth, and also much higher when non-banks hold a large share of government bonds.

6. Three challenges for central banks

First, when investors reprice fiscal risk, bond yields jump and currencies fall; activity weakens, and prices first rise through expectations and import costs before falling later, a pattern long familiar in emerging markets that may spread to advanced ones. Second, calibrating policy gets harder: with high debt, rate rises hurt output more through debt costs, wider spreads, bondholder losses and forced deleveraging, but may cut inflation less because interest income supports spending and expectations react less; euro area evidence shows smaller price declines after tightening in high-debt countries. Third, market dysfunction can force central banks to intervene, yet repeated rescues encourage leverage, blur the policy stance, weaken fiscal discipline and raise doubts about independence.

7. What policymakers should do

Central banks should watch for second-round effects, keep expectations anchored and choose strategies that hold up across many AI scenarios, putting medium-term price stability first even when this burdens public finances, since credibility lowers long-term rates. Independence is vital but not sufficient. Governments should consolidate in good times within credible medium-term frameworks, protect growth-enhancing investment and pursue reforms that spread AI's gains. Regulators should apply equal rules to equal risks whatever the type of institution, curb leverage, liquidity mismatches and fragile funding, and keep up with AI and cyber risks. Liquidity backstops should be temporary, targeted and reversible, like the Bank of England's 2022 intervention; lending directly to non-banks could replace asset purchases if well regulated. Acting now costs less than acting later.

1. Football and growth

Opening the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit, the Bundesbank President joked that in the four years Germany won the World Cup, growth averaged about 4% against 3% normally, while admitting there is no causal link. A year after saying Germany could be a success story, he saw some progress but an even greater need for reforms.

2. Energy shock and rates

The trade dispute with Washington is unresolved, and the closing of the Hormuz shipping route has pushed energy costs up, with lasting effects on world trade in fuel. Euro area inflation climbed from slightly below 2% in January to 3.2% in May, with other prices now rising too; public measures to cut energy bills lowered it by about 0.4 point and will fade. Even after a reopening, oil supply needs months to recover. Market-based and household inflation expectations have risen, and staff projections show 3.0% this year and a return to 2% only in 2028. The ECB therefore raised rates by a quarter point, a move fully anticipated, leaving policy roughly neutral, with all options open for July.

3. Germany's outlook

The Bundesbank expects calendar-adjusted growth of 0.5% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028, helped by cheaper energy, a firmer world economy and above all fiscal stimulus worth about 1.3 points of GDP in total, mainly defence and infrastructure.

4. Priority to investment

He called for giving investment the right of way: using the infrastructure and climate fund for truly additional projects, shortening planning and procurement through simpler rules and digital administration, and making Germany an attractive place to innovate. He singled out venture capital: deals equal 0.16% of GDP, about half the French ratio and a fraction of British and American levels. Only 5% of global venture funds are raised in the EU, so growing firms rely on foreign money and sometimes relocate. Cautious pension funds and insurers and thin exit markets explain the gap. National steps help, but Europe needs a single capital market, and a joint paper by the six largest EU finance ministers is an encouraging sign. Quoting a Dortmund football legend, he concluded that results are decided on the pitch: analyses must now turn into action, and if investment keeps priority, the German engine will speed up again, World Cup or not.

1. Inflation and the cash rate

Addressing a Senate committee on budget estimates, RBA Governor Michele Bullock explained that inflation fell into the target range in early 2025, prompting rate cuts, but accelerated markedly after mid-2025 as strong output growth added to capacity pressure, so it was too high even before the Middle East conflict. The conflict has driven up oil and commodity prices, lifting fuel prices and showing tentative signs of pass-through, including to new dwelling costs, with likely second-round effects. The Board has lifted the cash rate three times this year, 75 points in all, which takes one to two years to work fully but is already easing the housing market, and which helps contain domestic pressures and second-round effects even though it cannot reverse the oil-driven increase already in train.

2. Outlook and payments

She recognised the strain on households but warned that persistent inflation would become embedded in price and wage setting, require higher rates for longer, and hurt lower incomes most. May forecasts see headline inflation peaking above 4.5% in the June quarter, underlying inflation above target until mid-2027, slower growth and a rising but still low unemployment rate, with two adverse scenarios for a longer conflict. Investment in software, data centres and renewables is a bright spot. On payments, card surcharging should end from 1 October, interchange caps are being lowered and cost transparency improved, and Project Acacia found growing interest in tokenisation to improve wholesale markets, with further initiatives being planned.

1. Africa as the next growth engine

At the Africa Forward Summit in Kenya, Georgieva called Africa the place where the world will find its next growth engine, but in a world of widening imbalances: export-led economies squeeze room in supply chains, big deficit countries absorb a large share of capital, and the sharpest gap is demographic, with capital in ageing societies and growth potential in young ones.

2. What countries should do

Africa should use its own savings better and attract the vast global pools of equity and bond savings that now avoid the fastest-growing regions, through credible policy, action against corruption and less red tape. Removing trade barriers under the continental free trade area could raise income per head by over ten percent. Unsustainable debt should be restructured or reprofiled, unproductive borrowing avoided and financing moved from debt towards equity through deeper capital markets.

3. What the IMF does

Concessional lending to Africa has risen from eight to thirty-six billion dollars, helped by channelling reserve assets, and programmes are run as partnerships. The Fund is reforming the debt architecture, has added a third African seat on its board and is pushing for fairer representation. Good policies pay: closing half the gap with emerging markets in regulation and governance could raise sub-Saharan output by up to twenty percent within a decade.

1. A stalling convergence engine

Speaking to the Commission's competitiveness seminar in Leuven, Georgieva said Europe's convergence engine is stalling because the single market is unfinished and complacency about competing has set in, while threats mount: Russia's war to the east and a dented transatlantic alliance to the west, where a trade breakdown could cost the Union around 0.3 percent of output on top of half a point already lost.

2. Three hard facts

Europe's economy is shrinking in relative terms, since EU output once matched America's; it has lost its productivity lead in both technology and other sectors; and its firms are less competitive and struggle to grow, with promising startups moving abroad. The core objective must therefore be much faster productivity growth, through national structural reforms and completion of the single market.

3. Where regulation and fragmentation bite

Regulatory barriers to trade inside the Union are two to three times those between American states, moving workers is roughly eight times costlier, energy costs about double American levels, and a banking system split into twenty-seven pieces leaves a sixty-trillion-euro financial system holding timid money. She called for a deep regulatory clean-up, an end to national gold-plating, a 28th corporate regime created by Regulation rather than Directive, easier labour mobility through recognised qualifications, portable social security and flexible housing, one energy blueprint with interconnectors and faster permits, more joint EU borrowing for shared goods such as defence, and one unified financial system.

4. The payoff and three practical steps

Cutting internal frictions to American levels could raise EU productivity by about twenty percent, and Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain show reforms pay. She also backed rules-based trade and recent deals with Mercosur and India. Her three suggestions: make the single market a single-minded obsession under one empowered coordinator, set a hard deadline and plan backwards, and replace the image of a regulatory superpower with one that sweeps away obsolete rules, using AI for the clean-up.