ContextOpening keynote at the Future-Ready Economy 2026 forum in Bangkok, before Thailand's Prime Minister and officials; the OECD exists to promote better policies for prosperity and is steering Thailand through its membership review.
Why it mattersIt ties Thailand's OECD accession process to concrete reforms in energy, competition and skills at a time when trade tensions are redrawing Asian investment flows.
- Thailand faces repeated shocks and a slower structural slowdown.
- Trade and geopolitical tensions are redrawing investment flows.
- Energy costs and dependence weigh on the economy.
- Diversify energy, invest in grids and improve efficiency.
- Reform gradually alongside stronger institutions.
- Use OECD accession to anchor reforms on productivity, competition and skills.
Read the speech summary
1. The setting and the main idea
OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann opened the Future-Ready Economy 2026 forum in Bangkok in the week Thailand hosted the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, the first time in 35 years. His central claim is that no government can forecast what comes next, so the real test of an economy is how fast it can adjust. That capacity, he argues, is not luck: it results from policy choices, well-functioning markets, people's skills and solid institutions.
2. The global picture
He lists the run of shocks since 2020: the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the energy spike, the fastest synchronised rate rises in decades, wider tariffs and, in 2026, conflict in the Middle East. By late August, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz had cost some 2.8 billion barrels of exports, close to a month of world demand. World growth slowed from an annualised 3.5% in late 2025 to 2.7% in early 2026, yet that was better than the 2.4% the OECD had expected in June. Two things explained the resilience. Energy markets adjusted, with extra supply, new routes, stock releases and lower demand offsetting just over half of the lost oil; China accounted for almost a third of the fall in consumption. And spending linked to artificial intelligence boomed: output of computers and electronics rose between 11% and 19% across the US, the EU, China and other large Asian economies, far faster than industry overall, and AI-related products made up 70% of the growth in world goods trade between January and May.
3. Outlook and risks
The OECD expects world growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, with India at 7.1%, Indonesia at 5.2% and China at 4.5%, and Thailand at about 2.1% next year. Inflation is above target in more than half of the G20 and is projected at 4.1% this year for the group. He sees mainly downside risks: another cut in Middle East energy supply with thinner buffers (oil stocks 507 million barrels lower than in February, the US strategic reserve at its lowest since 1982), food price pressure from drought, Black Sea disruption and a strong El Niño, and higher borrowing costs, with long-term bond yields at multi-year highs in most G7 economies and public debt above its 2007 level in nearly every G20 country. A combined energy, food and financial shock could cut world growth by 0.7 points and add 1.1 points to inflation next year. His short-term advice to governments: keep inflation expectations anchored, make energy aid temporary and targeted, and rebuild fiscal room.
4. The deeper problem: weaker growth potential
Beyond the shocks, he warns that growth is slowing structurally: about 3% today against 3.7% on average before COVID, with potential growth heading from 2.9% to 1.7% by 2050 on current policies. One cause is ageing: the OECD's working-age population is set to shrink by 8% between 2023 and 2060, and Thailand's by 29%. The other is weaker productivity, down in the median OECD country from 2% a year in 2001–2007 to 0.8% recently. Thailand illustrates both sides: income per person rose from 30% to 40% of the OECD average between 2000 and 2013, then stopped converging as productivity growth fell from 4.8% to 1.7% a year. He presents that gap as room for catch-up.
5. The five forms of capital
Using the forum's framework, he gives the OECD view on each. Growth: more competition and better, simpler rules, since Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia regulate markets more tightly than the OECD average and the Thai state remains heavy in power, transport and telecoms; deeper capital markets through better boards, minority-shareholder rights and transparency on controlling owners, given that half of listed firms in six Southeast Asian markets trade below their book value and Asia holds only 20% of private-equity assets for 31% of world output; and broad AI adoption, which could lift productivity by 0.8 points a year instead of 0.2 if spread quickly, helped by better rural broadband. People: PISA 2025 showed 41% of Thai 15-year-olds below basic level in science against 26% in the OECD, so learning, lifelong training, more women and older workers in jobs and less informality are top priorities. Transition: secure, diverse and affordable energy is now a competitiveness issue, along with adaptation to climate risk and targeted rather than general support. Resilience: independent central banks and low debt reduce capital flight, as seen when emerging markets lost USD 86 billion of portfolio money in March; he backs the OECD code on capital movements and gradual opening of outward investment. Security: reduce dependence on concentrated suppliers, as export curbs on critical raw materials have multiplied more than fivefold since 2009, through diversified partners, foreign direct investment and trade integration, including a digital economy agreement within ASEAN that could raise Thailand's regional trade by 24%.
6. Thailand's OECD accession and conclusion
He praises Thailand's accession effort: talks opened in June 2024, the initial memorandum was submitted in December 2025, the Prime Minister now chairs the national committee and 25 OECD committees are reviewing Thai policies. In his view, accession anchors reforms on productivity, competition and skills, builds investor confidence and gives the region a voice where standards are set. He closes by describing readiness for the future as a capability built through competition, capital for productive firms, secure energy, sound public finances, diverse partnerships and, above all, skilled people.