ContextOpening statement by Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada and Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, at the press conference following the monetary policy decision, Ottawa, Ontario, 15 July 2026.
Why it mattersExplains how the Bank of Canada separates one-off oil effects from lasting inflation.
- Canada's growth stalled under tariffs and uncertainty.
- High oil prices could spread to other prices.
- Inflation could get stuck above 2%.
- Hold the policy rate at 2.25%.
- Look through direct oil effects but block persistent inflation.
- Watch the Middle East and US trade risks closely.
Read the speech summary
1. Rates on hold, growth resuming
Presenting the Monetary Policy Report, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Governing Council held the policy rate at 2.25%. Growth, flat over the past year amid tariffs and uncertainty, appears to be resuming: second-quarter GDP is estimated at 2.5% annualised, consumers are resilient, housing is steadying, exports are recovering and business investment is rising, led by oil and gas. Unemployment sits between 6.5% and 7%, and growth is projected at 0.7% in 2026 and 1.8% a year in 2027 and 2028.
2. Inflation and risks
Consumer price inflation reached 3.2% in May on gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict, but excluding gasoline it was 2.2% and core measures stay near 2%, with no broad spillover so far. Inflation should come back to its 2% goal early next year if oil settles around 70-75 dollars, though futures have risen since the forecast was finalised. The main risks are the Middle East conflict, US trade relations, inflation getting stuck above target, or a stalled recovery; the bank will not let oil become persistent inflation and stays ready to adjust.